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94 changes: 73 additions & 21 deletions 0_domain_study/README.md
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# [Project Name: "Quantifying Post-Pandemic Math Learning Loss"]

## Problem Statement
This folder contains all the research and documentation developed for
**Milestone 1** of our Collaborative Data Science Project. The focus
of this milestone is to clearly define a real-world, data-driven problem
based on our team’s personal experiences and domain understanding.

*"Our team's combined experiences in education, data analysis, and policy
research reveal a critical challenge: COVID-19 school closures caused Grade 3-5
students in [Country/Region] to lose 8-12 months of math proficiency,
disproportionately affecting low-income communities. Through [Teacher Name]'s
classroom observations, [Analyst Name]'s data work with [Organization], and
[Researcher Name]'s parent surveys, we identified three compounding factors:*
## 📌 Project Theme

- **Access Inequality**: 60% of rural students lacked devices for online learning
- **Pedagogical Gaps**: Teachers received no training for hybrid math instruction
- **Assessment Blindspots**: Existing data systems failed to capture granular
learning loss
**How did students in low- and middle-income countries experience changes
in their learning proficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic, and what kind
of support systems can address those gaps effectively?**

This created a 40% wider proficiency gap between socioeconomic groups
post-reopening, rendering traditional one-size-fits-all teaching methods
ineffective. Our project combines frontline educator insights, policy analysis,
and data science to identify targeted recovery solutions."
Our project investigates post-pandemic learning gaps in **mathematics**,
especially among **primary school students** in under-resourced contexts
where digital remote learning was not available during school closures.

## Research Question
---

**"How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect primary math proficiency in
[Country/Region], and which interventions show the highest potential
for bridging these gaps?"**
## 📂 Contents

## Problem Domain Analysis
### `problem-statement`

### Systems Thinking (Iceberg Model)
A detailed narrative based on our personal experiences.

---

### `domain-summary`

A summary of our team’s understanding of the problem using systems thinking
(**Iceberg Model**). We analyze:

1. **Event:** Declining math test scores post-pandemic.
2. **Patterns:**
Expand All @@ -38,3 +39,54 @@ for bridging these gaps?"**
- Teacher training gaps for remote instruction.
4. **Mental Models:**
- "Online learning is ineffective for STEM subjects."
This helped us identify root causes and shape a more strategic research question.

---

### `literature-review`

A thorough review of the global research landscape on pandemic-era education
loss, with a focus on:

- Foundational numeracy decline
- Learning poverty in LMICs
- Inequity in access to digital learning
- Long-term risks if learning gaps are left unaddressed

This review supports our problem framing with data and literature.

---

### `resources`

A curated list of data sources, articles, and research institutions relevant
to our topic. Includes:

- UNESCO, World Bank, PAL Network, ASER, J-PAL, Save the Children
- Datasets and dashboards on learning loss, equity, and education recovery

---

### `research-question`

Our final, actionable research question:

**How did students in low- and middle-income countries experience changes in
their learning proficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic, and what kind of
support systems can address those gaps effectively?**

This question is specific, relevant, and grounded in both personal experience
and available data.

---

## 🔜 Next Steps (Milestone 2)

For **Milestone 2**, we will:

- Explore available education data sets (e.g., test scores, dropout rates)
- Select a data model appropriate to our question
- Begin collecting and documenting relevant data

We are committed to improving team coordination and building on
this foundation with clear, focused analysis.
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# Domain Research Summary

## Problem Domain Summary – Using Systems Thinking

Our group’s understanding of the problem is shaped by both personal
experiences and the broader context of how the COVID-19 pandemic affected
education systems in low- and middle-income countries. To deeply analyze
the issue, we applied a systems thinking approach using the **Iceberg Model**,
which helped us go beyond the visible events and explore the underlying patterns,
structures, and beliefs that sustain the problem.

### Event

The most visible symptom of the problem is the decline in **mathematics proficiency**
among primary school students in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. In some
cases, students returned to school with significant gaps in understanding;
in others, they dropped out entirely.

### Patterns and Trends

These learning gaps are not isolated. They appear in various forms:

- Reduced math test scores across entire grade levels
- Lower student confidence and engagement in math
- Increased dropout rates, especially in under-resourced areas
- Teachers reporting wide variability in student skill levels

These trends are consistent across many low- and middle-income countries,
especially where digital infrastructure was weak or nonexistent.

### Systemic Structures

Several systemic issues contributed to and sustained the learning loss:

- **Lack of digital infrastructure:** Many students had no access to internet,
devices, or electricity during school closures
- **Weak national response:** In some regions, no remote learning plan was
implemented at all
- **Teacher overload:** Even when schools reopened, teachers had limited
time, training, or resources to address the wide learning gaps
- **Inequality in resource distribution:** Urban schools with more resources
recovered faster, while rural or poorer schools continue to struggle
- **Inflexible curricula:** Many education systems expected students to move
forward without adapting to the gaps created during the pandemic

### Mental Models

Underlying beliefs and assumptions continue to hold these systems in place:

- The idea that students who fall behind are "not smart"
rather than underserved
- Belief among decision-makers that learning loss will "fix itself" over time
- Cultural norms that may deprioritize girls' education or justify
dropping out during a crisis
- A lack of trust in data or systems to guide individualized interventions

### Summary

The math learning gaps caused by the pandemic are not just about missed classes.
They are the result of deeply interconnected social, economic, and institutional
systems. Without structural changes, these gaps are likely to widen.

A **systems thinking** approach helps us see that solving this problem requires
action on multiple levels:

- Changing policies
- Improving data access
- Supporting teachers
- Shifting mindsets

By recognizing these interconnected layers, we aim to identify the most
influential factors in learning loss and explore interventions that
can lead to meaningful, equitable recovery in math education for primary
students in low- and middle-income countries.

## Key Findings

1. **Pre-Pandemic Baseline:**
Expand All @@ -9,7 +82,7 @@
3. **Barriers to Recovery:**
- [Z]% of rural schools lacked stable internet (Source: [World Bank]).

### Data Sources
## Data Sources

- [ UNICEF ]
- [ World Bank Open Data ]
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# Literature Review Summary: Learning Gaps in Math Post-COVID

## Background Review: Understanding Post-Pandemic Math Learning Gaps in LMICs

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered the largest disruption to education in modern
history, affecting over 1.6 billion learners worldwide. As schools shut down
to reduce the spread of the virus, education systems were forced to rapidly
transition to alternative modes of instruction.

While some high-income countries quickly moved to online learning, many low
and middle-income countries (LMICs) lacked the digital infrastructure,
training, and resources to do the same. In some countries, education came
to a complete halt for months or even years.

According to a 2021 joint report by UNESCO, UNICEF, and the World Bank, school
closures in LMICs often lasted longer than in wealthier countries.
The remote learning options provided, if any, were significantly less
effective. Nearly 463 million children had no access to any form of remote
education during the height of the pandemic. In regions like Sub-Saharan
Africa and parts of South Asia, the educational gap between children who
could and could not continue learning widened drastically.

Among the most negatively affected learning areas was **mathematics**.
Math learning requires consistent practice, scaffolded instruction, and
direct teacher feedback. It builds upon itself, so when foundational concepts
are missed, like place value, operations, or fractions, students find it
extremely difficult to progress. Unlike reading, which some students can
continue practicing through informal means like reading at home, math
instruction typically depends on structured learning environments, materials,
and regular teacher input.

### Empirical studies support this decline

- In **Brazil**, a study found that the proportion of grade 2 students who
could solve basic math problems fell by over **27%** during the pandemic.
- In **rural Kenya and Uganda**, Learning Loss Assessment data revealed that
students returned to school after closures with math skills far below their
previous levels, with some performing at **pre-primary levels**.
- Similar findings were reported in **Pakistan**, **South Africa**, **India**,
and **Bangladesh**.

In addition to learning loss, the pandemic also **intensified educational inequality**.
Children from marginalized communities, including girls, children with disabilities,
refugees, and those living in poverty, faced higher risks of dropping out permanently.
Parents without formal education often could not support their children’s learning
at home, and in many cases, students had to take on adult responsibilities like
work or caregiving.

Even after schools reopened, the learning recovery has been **slow and uneven**.
Teachers are now dealing with classrooms full of students at very different academic
levels. There is often no diagnostic data to identify where students are struggling.
In many LMICs, education systems have not provided teachers with remedial tools,
catch-up programs, or specialized support for math recovery.

Several global organizations have called this a **generational catastrophe**.
The World Bank estimates that COVID-related learning loss could cost this generation
of students up to **17 trillion dollars in lifetime earnings** if not addressed
urgently. They also estimate that the global rate of **learning poverty**,
defined as the percentage of 10-year-olds who cannot read or understand
a simple story, rose to **70%** in LMICs during the pandemic.
Although focused on reading, the same pattern is likely true or worse for math.

The data also shows that **math proficiency** is a key predictor of long-term
academic success, employability, and income. This makes recovery in this domain
especially urgent. Yet, much of the current literature focuses on high-income
contexts or general learning loss, without breaking down the impact on specific
subjects like math or specific populations such as primary students in LMICs.

Our research seeks to address this gap. By using **data science tools** and
a **systems thinking lens**, we aim to examine the extent and causes of math
learning gaps in primary education across LMICs. This will include analysis
of performance trends, digital access, school closure lengths, and the
presence or absence of national recovery plans. Our findings can help
inform **targeted, evidence-based interventions** that prioritize the
most affected students and support equitable recovery.

---

## Key Papers Reviewed

### **Paper 1**
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# Problem Statement: Based on Personal Experience

During our group discussion, each of us shared personal experiences of how the
COVID-19 pandemic disrupted math learning in different but connected ways.

**Heba**
Heba, a math teacher in a public school, spoke about the difficulties she faced
teaching during the pandemic. While some schools attempted remote learning,
many of her students had no stable internet, shared devices with siblings,
or no space at home to study. Teaching math online was especially challenging
because it depends on real-time problem-solving and personal interaction.
Even when students joined, they struggled to follow lessons.
When schools reopened, she found that her students had widely different
levels of understanding. Many had forgotten foundational concepts.
Despite her efforts, it was nearly impossible to give each student
the support they needed in large classrooms with limited resources.

**May Mon**
From Myanmar, May experienced both the COVID-19 pandemic and a coup at the
same time. When the COVID outbreak occurred, she had just completed high
school and had to postpone her university education due to the pandemic.

**Nada**
As a student, Nada faced a lot of difficulties during the COVID-19 pandemic,
especially in learning math. One of the main challenges was the weak internet
connection at home and the lack of enough devices. Her family had to share one
device among several members. Also, instead of live classes, teachers would
send recorded videos, but they weren’t clear, and she couldn’t understand
the lessons properly. It wasn’t just math. She struggled in many subjects.
She often felt lost and confused, and there wasn’t enough support to help her
catch up.

**Jubayer and Alexander**
Jubayer and Alexander also shared their stories about the challenges they faced
in their education during the pandemic.

---

Together, these experiences show how the pandemic created serious,
unequal learning gaps, particularly in math, in many low and middle-income
settings. Teachers were overwhelmed, and students lacked access to the
most basic learning tools.

We believe this crisis demands urgent attention. Through data science,
we aim to explore how deeply these math learning gaps run, which groups
were most affected, and what interventions could help students recover
and succeed. Our goal is to inform recovery strategies that are fair,
targeted, and effective, especially for students and teachers in
under-resourced contexts.
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